1. $SMH is running nearly 5-to-1 puts over calls today, 139k put contracts vs 28k calls. The $545 July 31 puts printed 8k contracts against just 41 open interest, that's fresh positioning, not a roll. Spot is at $579 and the crowd leaning this hard on downside into late July could mean the semi bounce isn't as clean as $NVDA's call action suggests. Worth watching if we're holding semis.
2. Spot crept to $197.26 and the $200 calls for July 8 pulled 159k contracts vs 25k OI. Same strike as last week but volume is down sharply from yesterday's 347k print on the $197.5s. The $190 puts are running 44% IV vs 36% on the calls, a little put skew starting to creep in. If $NVDA can't clear $200 before Wednesday's expiry, all that premium burns.
3. $TSLA at $404.91 has a 1.11 put/call ratio with 82k contracts on the $400 puts expiring July 8. The crowd is either hedging or betting on a slip below the round number before Wednesday. Flip side, $MSFT has a 0.25 put/call with 46k on the $400 calls for July 8, spot at $391.84. If we're already long $MSFT, those $400 covered calls at 36% IV might be worth a look.
Aggregated and distilled by Two Sentence Traders. Not financial advice.