Quick hits - August 05, 2026

$VPG earnings ugly on paper, stuck in no man's land: $VPG's headline earnings numbers are rough and the gross margin miss looks like the real problem, market reaction here seems warranted. Not selling the position, but not adding either, the stock's stuck in no man's land technically on thin volume and needs to reclaim the gap. Waiting on the earnings call for management to explain the margin miss before there's any confidence to DCA back in.

$AMPX doubles beat and raise, margins expanding: $AMPX posted a double beat and raise, with gross margin expansion the real story behind the print. Market cap's sitting right back where it was last September, but the business underneath looks like a different animal now. Earnings call's today, worth a listen for whether that margin trend has legs.

$KTOS hypersonics guide: $1B by 2027: Fresh detail out of the $KTOS call: management guided Hypersonics to $1B in revenue by 2027 and flagged 30% organic growth for Q4, described as the most bullish call yet for the name. Adds real teeth to the contract-award trail we've been tracking the last month.

Rare earths could wake up on a China retaliation: Rare earths trade's been dead money for a while, but there's a path back to life: the US just banned Chinese data-center parts and put a floor under polysilicon prices, and if China retaliates by restricting rare earth supply that flips the sector's demand/supply picture fast. Nothing's happened yet, just watching for the retaliation headline. Hopeful, not positioned.

OSS tanked on the print, but the numbers didn't earn it: $OSS got dumped on earnings this morning along with the rest of the ugly SMID-cap tape, but the print itself looks better than the reaction once you dig in, nothing really wrong with it. Low-volume name, so don't read too much into the knee-jerk move either way. Worth watching for a fade of the panic if that read holds up.

SMH's breakout is really just an NVDA breakout: $SMH is breaking to new highs, but that move is being carried almost entirely by $NVDA. Equal-weight semis, tracked by $XSD, are still red on the day, so the breadth underneath this breakout is thin. Worth knowing before treating this as a green light for the whole sector.

ALAB print, CXL read-through builds the PENG case: $ALAB earnings came in solid, and the positive CXL commentary on the call is a good read-through for $PENG. PENG's already reported this quarter, so there's no binary earnings risk sitting out there for it right now, just a confirming data point stacking onto the thesis.

RKLB flagged for strong execution: $RKLB getting called out for strong execution, one more tick in the win column for the name. No new level or trade attached, just confirmation the story's on track.

Truist wades into the dot-com comparison debate: Truist's out with the AI-versus-dot-com valuation comparison, the kind of note that shows up whenever things get frothy. No new level or call attached, just context for the bigger debate everyone's already having. File it away, not a trade.

$OSS bookings already matching all of 2025, dip looks like noise: $OSS's earnings call had a one-time settlement charge that seems to have thrown the algos off this morning, but the actual report and guidance were strong. New bookings in H1 2026 are already roughly equal to all of 2025's total revenue, and management flagged 14 projects worth $40M+ in future revenue, up from just one back in 2023. Both 360-degree situational-awareness programs are progressing well with the Army testing them across multiple vehicles, so the growth story looks intact even if the tape didn't love it today.

SPY pinned 772-780, dealers want a grind not a trend: Options positioning has $SPY compressed into a 772-780 pin with a dominant call wall underneath, over +727k net GEX, so today reads like a grind day, scalps over swings. $ES is running into resistance right at 7800 too, and after a move up this size, some volatility landing somewhere soon wouldn't be shocking. Nothing to force here, just know the box we're stuck in.

Put gamma building back up at SMH 500: Put gamma on $SMH is growing back in at the 500 strike, a sign some rehedging is happening under the hood. Positive liquidity should keep a lid on it for now, but it's notably building as a hedge, and $SNDK's earnings tonight will matter for sentiment either way.

$KTOS running into weekly resistance despite a great call: $KTOS is bumping into overhead resistance on the weekly chart even after what was one of the better earnings calls from them in a while. Good report, tough level. This one's a watch for a breakout rather than a chase up here.

Treasury's $125B refunding could be a quiet yields tailwind: Treasury announced a $125B quarterly refunding, raising $28.7B in new cash, with next week's slate including $58B of fresh sales. Read here is this could end up a positive driver for yields, so it's worth keeping an eye on the macro side even without an immediate trade attached.

Mixed bag on ALAB, ANET, AMD earnings reactions: Yesterday's earnings crop came in mixed across $ALAB, $ANET, and $AMD, not a uniform sector pop. $ANET's already the standout on that first $3B quarter. Worth checking how your specific name actually reacted before assuming the whole group's green.

Es rejects 7800, ndx slips under the trendline: $SPX futures got rejected at 7800 and $NDX slipped back under its trendline, exactly the kind of pullback/digestion you'd expect here. Nothing alarming yet. Liquidity data's still supportive, and the read is 29k on NDX should get tested and firm up before the next leg higher. Watching that level, not selling the dip.

SMH's breakout still holds, SNDK earnings is the near-term test: Weekly chart's still the cleanest picture of the $SMH breakout, and it holds up fine right now. But SNDK's earnings may end up being the swing factor for the whole momentum/AI trade near-term, small cap for the group but one of its poster boys. Worth watching the reaction there before leaning further into semis.

$FCX coiled up and eyeing $75: $FCX is squeezing on the daily (TTM Squeeze firing) after a bull flag/pennant consolidation, and price is knocking on $75. If it clears that level with the squeeze firing, this could run; if it stalls out here, we're back to watching from the sidelines. Not a chase, just a level worth having on the radar.