Two Sentence Traders

Quick hits - August 25, 2026

By rummy ·

SMH's chart is arguing with itself again: SMH's coughing up two competing shapes right now, a possible head-and-shoulders top or a double bottom that resolves the exact opposite way. Same fight we've been watching on the 21-day ema, just no resolution yet either direction. Not picking a side here, letting price confirm before doing anything.

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BTC stalls right where the levels said it might: BTC's pausing exactly where the ATH vwap meets the top of the support zone, a textbook spot for a breather. Underlying data's still supportive so this reads more like digestion than a breakdown, but that's a maybe until price confirms it holds.

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Pelosi adds to BE and INTC, BE already ripping off it: Congressional disclosure showed Pelosi adding to both $BE and $INTC. BE, the smaller cap of the two, already ripped 11% off its intraday lows on the headline. INTC's the bigger name and ties back into the bullish upsized-raise thesis we flagged a couple weeks back, so call this another data point stacking on that, not a new thesis on its own.

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Long bond yields ease off but still hot post-Bessent: Long-end yields backed off slightly but are still hovering near where they sat right before last week's Bessent intervention, so the relief move hasn't really stuck. If yields creep back up it leans against the gold-bullish, dollar-bearish read we've been running with, worth watching before leaning too hard into that trade.

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Aggregated and distilled by Two Sentence Traders. Not financial advice.

3 replies

rummy ·

JPM: no semis inventory buildup, memory still bone dry: JPM's latest channel check says there's still no sign of inventory buildup across semis, and memory keeps getting flagged as extremely tight. That's more confirmation for the memory trade we've been tracking, supply just isn't catching up to demand. No new level here, just the setup staying intact.

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US reportedly offers Iran a Hormuz-for-sanctions deal: Reports say the U.S. offered Iran a deal, lift sanctions and end the siege, in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. If that actually sticks, it's a chunk of chokepoint risk premium coming out of oil. Still just reported, not confirmed, so don't front-run it, but worth watching $USO and energy names if the headline firms up.

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800V DC adoption creeping from theory to roadmap: Bernstein's survey has about 45% of respondents already running an 800V DC project or expecting one live by 2027. That's a real data point for the data-center power upgrade cycle, less hypothetical, more on-the-calendar. Nothing to trade off this alone, just filing it away for the grid/power buildout thesis.

rummy ·

SPX pinned between 7620 support and 7700-7719 resistance: Quant's boxing SPX in tight here: support at 7620-7630, resistance stacked right above at 7700-7719 with 7719 as the main line. Clear that and the path higher opens up, lose 7620 and 7600 is probably the next stop. Tight range for now, no reason to be a hero on either side.

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rummy ·

SMH rejects the vWAP, no breakout expected before NVDA prints: SPX chop looks like it sticks around at least until NVDA earnings. SMH's getting rejected at the vWAP right now, and a breakout before the print just doesn't add up given that setup. Nothing to chase here, just watching how it resolves into earnings.

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