Two Sentence Traders

Quick hits - July 28, 2026

By rummy ·

SPX holds the wedge bottom, closes above the 50d: $SPX held the wedge bottom today and closed marginally above the 50-day, and for those who prefer $US500 the pattern reads even cleaner. Small win but a win. If that 50d holds we might finally get a floor under this chop, lose it again and we're right back to square one.

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Weekly SPX says chop till October, then watch the midterms: Weekly $SPX chart is just grinding in chop mode right now, and the read is we work back up toward 7600 into October before any real selloff shows up around the midterm elections. Tech-heavy books are lagging that grind in the meantime. It's a slow-burn thesis, not a this-week trade, but worth keeping on the radar if the next few months feel directionless.

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$AMKR's earnings actually check out, guide's a wash: $AMKR's print was solid, revenue guidance came in just a touch below street but the margin guide blew way past it. Nets out net bullish on balance, not the disaster a headline miss might suggest. Full review's still coming but the knee-jerk read is don't panic-sell this guide.

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Kospi leaning on the 9-month ema before the real test: Kospi's failing a retest of its old highs right now, but the read is the 9-month ema saves it today, at least for now. The bigger test is the 200-day ema underneath that, if the 9m doesn't hold, that's the next line in the sand.

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Another ABI signal on the board: Another ABI distress signal fired today, keeping the run going. On its own it's not a reason to do anything differently, but it's one more data point saying this tape isn't as healthy as the headlines want you to believe.

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Aggregated and distilled by Two Sentence Traders. Not financial advice.

6 replies

rummy ·

Earnings pileup across semis, datacenter, and solar names: GLW's print already hit, and $BE, $STX, $ENPH, $KLAC, $VRT, $APH are all lined up to report soon too, a real cluster across semis/datacenter and alt-energy. No specifics on any of the numbers yet, just flagging it. If you're holding covered calls through these, size for gap risk both ways.

rummy ·

TSM, GOOGL, GLW all beat and got sold anyway: TSM's earnings were strong and it sold off. GOOGL's were solid and it sold off. GLW printed clean this morning and it's getting sold too, so this reads like a market punishing any print rather than three broken businesses. GLW's the extreme case here, this thing was $270 a month ago and sits around $120 now despite execution that honestly doesn't look bad on a closer look. Worth digging into before assuming any of these are actually broken, not just unloved right now.

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Kospi down another 10%, semis catching the fallout again: Kospi's down another 10% this morning, on top of last week's circuit-breaker halt, and it's weighing on semis again in premarket. Citadel's desk is also apparently watching incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for something heading into this session, worth keeping an eye out for headlines there. Nothing actionable yet, just watching whether semis open with the Korea unwind or find their footing.

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rummy ·

Oversold breadth and FOMC positioning both hint at more chop before the bounce: Individual stocks are stretched oversold enough that it's suggestive of a little more downside before the bigger relief move. A separate vol-positioning read agrees, flagging March 2025 and March 2026 as the closest analogs into this FOMC, both of which skewed lower near-term. Two different angles landing on the same page: hold off on new buys, DCA at most, keep the hedges running. If we get a bounce into or after the decision, that's the tell things are changing.

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SPX quant levels for July 28: 7469-7475 is the line to watch: Fresh quant map for today: 7469-7475 is the pivot/resistance, with 7445 then 7422 as the next levels down if that breaks, and 7350-7365 the support to lose before it gets ugly. Clear 7500-7510 and that's bulls taking real control back. Just a map for the day, not a call on direction either way.

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rummy ·

SMH testing the trendline, dispersion says fade the bounce: $SMH is testing its trendline here, so an oversold bounce is on the table. But $SPY's barely moving, that dispersion trade is still running, and this morning's market maker profile points the same way. Read here leans toward semis grinding lower into mid-August rather than a clean reversal.

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rummy ·

SMH bounces off the trendline, still not calling it a bottom: $SMH bounced off the trendline about like we'd expect, but that's not the same as a durable bottom forming. Kospi's sitting at its 200-day too, so there's some follow-through to watch for tomorrow, just not feeling optimistic yet that this is the real turn.

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rummy ·

SMH stalls at the 100d ema: $SMH is rejecting the 100-day ema after its oversold bounce, no follow-through yet. Semis could still gap above it if Korea holds the 200-day overnight, but the read here is any pump doesn't stick for now. Fade the strength till it proves otherwise.

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