Quick hits - July 29, 2026

MSFT looks like it raises capex, not cuts it: Reading this, MSFT cutting capex this week looks unlikely, if anything the print may show them raising it aggressively. That matters for the semis selloff story we've been tracking, since a chunk of the SMH weakness has been pinned on capex fear that a raise would undercut. Watching MSFT's number this week as the tell, not chasing either side yet.

KTOS bags another contract, earnings next week the real test: $KTOS validated ramjet turbomachinery for a $LMT missile program, another notch in the contract-win streak we flagged before B Riley's 170%-upside call. Earnings hit next week and with wins stacking up the print should be solid, defense still reads bottomy here. Not a fresh entry signal, just more confirmation the thesis is intact into the print.

Bloom CEO comments give NBIS a long-dated tailwind: Bloom's CEO comments are being read as a tailwind for $NBIS off their 5GW target by 2030, the kind of buildout that could put 2030 revenue somewhere in the 60-120B range. Won't be cheap getting there and this is a 2030 story, not a this-week trade. Filing it as long-term thesis support, not an actionable level right now.

Iran missile strike on a US base lands right before FOMC: Fars News is reporting Iranian missiles hit a US base in Jordan, and Trump's already saying the US will respond. That's real headline risk stacking on top of today's FOMC decision, so expect chop either way this trades. Nothing to act on yet, just don't be a hero into two live catalysts stacked on the same day.

SK Hynix paid $62.40 a share for PENG's preferred stake, well above the $48 tape: SKM converted preferred shares to ordinary and sold them to SK Hynix at $62.40 a share, and $PENG is only trading around $48 right now. That's a strategic buyer paying a real premium over the market price, read that as a net positive even with the stock still lagging. Not a trigger to chase, just another data point for the bulls.

$SMH testing its trendline again, and that's not a great sign: $SMH is back testing the same trendline again, and the more times a level gets retested, the weaker that support usually gets. Nothing new to do here, just watching whether this test finally breaks it. Semis have been the tell all month, so this one stays on the radar.

SMH puts closed out over 100%, hard lessons banked with them: Full exit on the $SMH puts here, runners closed up over 100%, and it comes after a stretch that exposed some real risk-management mistakes, this downturn ran far more aggressive than positioned for. Waiting for a better re-entry to reload $SMH and $QQQ puts, while letting the $SPY, $QQQ and $ARKK puts already running keep going into August and September expiries. Still leaning on the idea this momentum unwind eventually gets met by a strong buyer, even if it's from lower.

SPY 740P puts nearing take-profit ahead of FOMC: $SPY September 740 puts hit one of the take-profit marks, and the plan is to sell into FOMC for roughly a 66% gain. ARKK puts are still running alongside it, so the bearish sleeve isn't fully closed out, just trimming where the win is already banked.

QQQ August puts up 40%, trimming half into FOMC: $QQQ August puts are up about 40%, and half's getting sold here with the rest left running. FOMC gets framed as a possible better re-entry either way, no hike is expected so no straight-knife-lower scenario is the base case, but that's the setup, not a guarantee.

Covered the ARKK puts into FOMC, banked the gain: Covered the $ARKK puts near the low of day instead of forcing it into FOMC. Booked the win, roughly 13% of the portfolio recovered. Waiting on a cleaner re-entry now, ideally a real turning point in positioning once FOMC commentary lands.

FOMC holds, but the dissent was all hawkish: Fed held rates steady today, 9-3, but all three dissents wanted a hike, first time we've seen three dissents in the same direction since 2016. Statement told us basically nothing, exactly what you'd expect out of Warsh at this point. Vix got crushed on the news even though he hasn't really said much of substance yet, that reaction reads mostly algo, not conviction. His own line was the interesting part: even if the Fed hasn't done much, the market's already tightened conditions for them, so passive tightening might be doing more work here than the actual vote.

2yr yields say bonds are doing the Fed's work: 2-year yields dropped notably today, and that's the real headline out of the meeting, not the hold itself. Warsh's line was that bonds are already doing the Fed's work for them, so don't read a hold as the all-clear. If that yield slide keeps going into next week it may matter more than anything in the statement.

SPX double top at 7450 confirms the rate-hold thesis: One trader's positioning for today's rate hold paid off once SPX put in a clean double top at 7450, and it held. Worth bookmarking that level, a double top that clean tends to get tested again before it's fully done.